China steel demand and production expected to dip: SIFW 2026

Speaking at the Singapore Iron Ore and Steel Forum on Tuesday, Zhao Jinkui, deputy secretary-general at China Iron & Steel Association reflected on the key trends in China’s steel industry.

“With a focus on quality rather quantity and a shift to green development, China has seen a decrease in steel consumption and production,” said Zhao.

From January to April 2026, crude steel production stood at 331 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%.

China’s steel price index stood at 91.73 points, down 3.45% year-on-year as the journey towards eliminating low quality production continues.

“By removing excess capacity, the sector is no longer solely focused on a consumption growth model,” said Zhao.

While construction sector demand for steel has decreased, the demand has shifted towards the manufacturing sector.

For the rest of 2026, Zhao expects steel demand to dip slightly, factoring in a real estate sector that is readjusting, and steady manufacturing growth, led by new energy equipment and ship building.

Looking at the import and export of steel products, Chinese exports have surged for Africa, Latin America and Europe in 2025, rising by over 30%, while Asia, which accounts for 64.5% of Chinese exports, increased by 4%.

Zhao expects the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which was launched in 2026, to continue to drive up costs of China steel and downstream products.

However, he’s confident with China’s long-term strategy to tackle costs, including initiatives around low carbon development steel production. He noted that more than 140 enterprises have joined the association’s initiative for energy efficiency best practice for low emission steel production.

The National Stock Exchange of India is collaborating with the Steel Users Federation of India to create an efficient price-risk management framework, enabling the country’s steel industry participants to hedge price volatility through derivatives.

Trading volumes at the London Metal Exchange increased 13.7% year on year in May, as stronger activity in aluminium, copper and lead contracts helped the exchange recover from a softer April.