Prediction markets can be manipulative with shorter trading horizons, study finds

20th July, 2026

Aravind Bulusu
Trading screen displaying stock charts with buy, sell, and neutral indicators.

A recent study by Stanford University and the Singapore Management University found trading anomalies in the underlying bitcoin spot market coinciding with the settlement of event contracts on Polymarket’s five-minute prediction market window, resulting in localised price manipulation used to gain an undue advantage in cash-settled trades.

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ABN AMRO
Bank of America
CBOE
Citi
Goldman Sachs
DRW Holdings
HSBC
J.P Morgan
Marex
Morgan Stanley
SGX
SocGen
Susquehanna
MUFG Investor Services
TP ICAP
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