Event contract data used as probability gauge, Kalshi study finds

24th August, 2026

Narayani Srinivasan
Blue digital screens displaying code and data connected by glowing network lines.

A study of 2.24 million resolved markets finds that prices on the prediction exchange behave increasingly like probabilities as events approach — strengthening the case for event contracts as a new kind of forecasting instrument.

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ABN AMRO
Bank of America
CBOE
Citi
Goldman Sachs
DRW Holdings
HSBC
J.P Morgan
Marex
Morgan Stanley
SGX
SocGen
Susquehanna
MUFG Investor Services
TP ICAP
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