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Johnson: In defence of contingency futures

11 January 2012

Why creativity in the industry should be allowed.

This subject provokes sincere soul searching. After all, the line between what is prudent risk management and what is betting is elusive.

The Dodd-Frank Act prohibits futures contracts on movie box office receipts. Why? The producers of films face the same risk as farmers and oil refiners. A bad showing at the theaters has the same commercial impact as a failed crop or a dry drilling hole.

There was a severe backlash when someone proposed the use of derivatives to hedge against terrorist attacks. Yet, massive economic losses resulted - perhaps the terrorists main objective all along. Airlines went bankrupt as passengers feared to fly. Merchants nearby were ruined or forced to move to pricier locations. And the cost to national and local governments was immense.

The current debate focuses on Presidential elections. These are vital but also hugely expensive. Aside from the cost of running political campaigns that may reach $1 billion this year, there is the expense of promoting the location of national conventions.

Consider major sporting events. Owners, players and host arenas risk millions on what occurs. And yet, there is resistance to offering them a hedging tool.

These are legitimate, indeed, essential costs. Why should they be treated any differently from more mundane commercial risk? The value of hedging is equally acute and, in my view, fully justified.

By definition, a "speculator" is someone who voluntarily agrees to assume a risk that someone else would otherwise have to bear alone. If I, a lawyer, wish to share the risk of a crop failure, it is OK. Why not all legitimate risks that exist out there?

We live in a world where, perhaps, 20% of economic risks can be hedged. The rest remain tainted because, though they are a real and present danger, they are easily confused with gambling (elections) or morbidity (terrorism).

In my view, whatever economic activity is sanctioned by our laws should have the same hedging opportunities as the farmers, energy companies, miners and banks now take for granted.

Well, OK, I would make an exception for the incessant TV cooking contests. After all, a line must be drawn somewhere.

Philip McBride Johnson is a former chairman of the CFTC


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