Fed rate rise; Chinese equities; Japanese economy; over supplied commodity markets are key scenarios to watch
Putnam, chief economist, CME Group
markets often experience an upswing in volatility in the
fall. In the US, for example, October is on record as the
most volatile month for equities. This autumn season may
well prove exceptionally volatile, given some of the pressures
we see bubbling beneath the surface. The docket for the
latter part of 2015 includes base case scenarios for a Federal
Reserve (Fed) rate rise decision, continued volatility in
Chinese equities and downward currency pressure, a weak
Japanese economy adding to pressures for further yen
depreciation, generally over-supplied commodity markets keeping
prices low, heightened political risks in many emerging market
countries, from Brazil, to Turkey, to Thailand, and a very
strong El Nino weather pattern which could bring some surprises
to global agricultural markets. It is a heady mix of risk
factors converging on markets which suggests volatile times
This article is available to subscribers and registered users
Please log in to continue reading.
Not yet registered? Take a free trial.
If you have already taken a free trial you
have ongoing access to the analysis section of FOW.com including this story.
Log in using your details below to read.
Already have an account? |